Critical Minerals Could Become Canada’s Next Investment Boom: Here’s the Stock I’d Watch

China produced nearly 80% of the world’s natural graphite in 2024.

That’s perfectly manageable until governments decide they’d rather not have one country sitting on the tap for materials needed in batteries, defence equipment, and advanced manufacturing.

Canada’s Investment Summit made it pretty clear Ottawa sees an opportunity.

Mining moves

Prime Minister Mark Carney told investors Canada had signed more than 50 critical-minerals agreements with over 15 countries, unlocking $20 billion in investment. The goal, he said, was to reduce reliance on “foreign chokeholds in critical supply chains.”

For investors, that phrase may be more important than another mining-boom prediction. Canada isn’t simply trying to dig up more minerals. It wants mines, processing facilities and customers built into a supply chain that allies can actually use.

One small Canadian company is already trying to do exactly that.

Going to graphite

Critical minerals had their own summit panel featuring the leaders of Agnico Eagle, Cameco and Teck Resources. Elsewhere, Blackstone President Jon Gray told investors Canada’s “critical minerals” were among the natural resources that make the country unusually attractive.

Graphite deserves particular attention. It’s the largest component by weight in a typical lithium-ion battery. Yet China accounted for roughly 79% of global natural graphite mine production in 2024. That concentration helps explain Carney’s “chokeholds” comment.

Canada doesn’t simply need another graphite mine. It needs the ability to process graphite into the high-purity material battery manufacturers can actually use. That’s why I’d watch Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSX: NOU).

From mine to battery

Nouveau Monde is building the Matawinie graphite mine in Quebec. Construction officially began in May, with commercial production targeted by the end of 2028. Management expects average annual production of about 106,000 tonnes of graphite.

Better still, more than 70% of expected production is already covered by commercial agreements with customers including Panasonic Energy and the Government of Canada. That’s a useful bit of de-risking for a mine that isn’t producing yet.

Nouveau Monde also wants to process graphite rather than stopping at the mine gate. Its planned Bécancour battery-material facility would initially produce about 13,000 tonnes annually for Panasonic. That mine-to-processing model is precisely what Canada’s investment push is trying to encourage.

Government money is already arriving

This isn’t merely summit rhetoric. The Canada Growth Fund committed roughly $113 million to Nouveau Monde earlier this year as part of a roughly $411 million financing package. Ottawa has also referred Matawinie to the Major Projects Office, putting it directly inside the effort to move strategically important projects toward construction faster.

Prime Minister Carney even attended the mine’s groundbreaking in May. In other words, this company offers a fairly direct test of whether Canada’s critical-minerals strategy can move from speeches to shovels.

Nouveau Monde recently traded around $1.93, giving it a market capitalization near $635 million. That creates enormous potential upside if Matawinie reaches commercial production and Bécancour follows. It also creates enormous risk. Construction can run over budget. Graphite prices can fall. Nouveau Monde still needs capital, and additional fundraising could dilute existing shareholders. The Bécancour facility also still needs a final investment decision. So, this isn’t a stock I’d mistake for a sleepy blue-chip miner.

Bottom line

Still, that’s what makes it interesting. Carney said Canada wants “industries of tomorrow being built right here and owned by Canadians,” specifically naming critical minerals.

Nouveau Monde is trying to build exactly that. If Canada’s next investment boom starts underground, this is one small TSX stock I’d keep very close to the watchlist.